Will AI Replace Jobs for Average Intelligence in the Next 50 Years?

As we stand on the cusp of a technological revolution, the question arises: Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) replace jobs traditionally held by people with average intelligence within the next 50 years? The answer is multifaceted and hinges on a range of economic, social, and environmental factors.

Current State and Cost Analysis

Perhaps not all roles demand high levels of intelligence or skill. The cost of building and maintaining an AI system with actuators and sensors, designed to perform a variety of tasks, is likely to exceed the cost of employing a human. This implies that in many sectors, the cost-benefit analysis may favor human labor. For instance, cerebral roles such as legal counsel, financial analysts, and medical practitioners are more costly, and thus, more likely to be targeted for automation. However, for roles that involve complex decision-making, continuous learning, and high adaptability, human beings still hold significant advantages.

Economic and Social Implications

With 7 billion people already struggling to meet their most basic needs amidst tight resources and limited land availability, the dependency on an economic transaction system becomes even more crucial. The idea of replacing workers with machines and providing them with food and shelter in exchange for not working may seem like a utopian solution but is fraught with challenges.

The transition to a world where a significant portion of the population is not working yet expecting to be paid would lead to systemic issues. It would necessitate the creation of mechanisms to handle a non-working majority while ensuring that the working class is not unfairly burdened. Without such a system, the economic and social fabric would crumble, and the planet would face severe consequences.

Environmental and Demographic Pressures

The consequences of a large and growing population operating outside the current economic system could be catastrophic. An unchecked population growth, coupled with the degradation of natural resources, could lead to dire consequences. Rising temperatures, pollution, loss of biodiversity, and ocean acidification could result. Furthermore, the introduction of advanced AI and automation might exacerbate these issues, given that it could potentially lower the labor cost barrier, leading to overpopulation and further strain on our planet's resources.

Alternative Approaches and Relevance

Instead of replacing jobs, the focus should be on modeling human intelligence to complement and enhance human capabilities. This strategy can help address dangerous or overly difficult tasks without eliminating the need for human labor entirely. Even if AI advancements do not live up to current expectations, continuous refinement and evolution of AI and automation systems will ensure they remain valuable and necessary.

Ultimately, the advent of AI and automation is not inherently the problem. The challenge lies in how we integrate these technologies into our existing economic and social systems. By focusing on modeling human intelligence and enhancing rather than replacing human roles, we can ensure a more stable and sustainable future.

In conclusion, while AI may automate certain routine tasks and roles traditionally held by people with average intelligence, it is unlikely to replace them entirely within the next 50 years. The integration of AI into our economic and social systems is more about enhancement and complementarity rather than elimination. As we move forward, it is crucial to consider the broader implications of technology on society and the environment.