Why Donald Trump's Popularity is Sliding in Iowa's 2016 Primaries

Introduction

While the 2016 primary race is a marathon, the early front runners tend to fade, as history has shown. In 2012, Rick Santorum won in Iowa, but his victory didn't ultimately translate into a nomination. Similarly, Hillary Clinton seemed like the favorite in her bid for the Democratic nomination, but her lead did not secure her the candidacy. The Republican nomination process, in particular, is a long and arduous one, and candidates who gain an early lead often struggle to maintain it.

The Early Lead and Its Challenges

Donald Trump and Ben Carson both rose to be the frontrunners early in the GOP race. However, they share a common flaw: their political perspectives have moved beyond the mainstream of the Republican Party. Despite both seemingly getting an early lead, whether Trump can maintain his position, and Carson's surge, is questionable.

Ben Carson's Rise in Iowa

According to the recent Monmouth poll, Ben Carson's lead over Donald Trump in Iowa has significantly increased. As of now, Carson holds an average lead of 8.6 percentage points over Trump. This trend is evident in other recent polls as well. Carson's advantages are particularly notable among evangelical Christians, non-evangelicals, and women.

Key Trends in the Monmouth Poll

Carson maintains a 36 to 18 lead over Trump among evangelical Christian voters, up from 29 to 23 in August. Carson holds a 28 to 19 edge among non-evangelical voters, reversing an 18 to 24 deficit in August. Carson now leads among women with a 34 to 17 advantage over Trump, a similar result to two months ago, and he currently leads among men 31 to 20, reversing a 17 to 27 deficit.

These trends indicate that Carson's rise is particularly strong among the demographic groups that typically participate in the Iowa caucuses.

Republican Voters' Acceptance of Donald Trump

Donald Trump's negatives are the highest among all candidates in the field, and he is not the second choice of many Republican voters. This is evident in the recent Bloomberg poll, where Carson's surge has become the biggest story. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are also trending upward in recent polls.

Specific Findings from the Bloomberg Poll

In the recent Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, evangelical Christians, who represent 42 percent of likely Republican caucus participants, appear to be aligning behind Carson. He received support from 33% of this group, up from 21% in August, when he narrowly led Trump with this key segment.

The Role of Advertising in Shaping Popular Opinion

Two reasons highlight Ben Carson's electoral success and Trump's waning popularity. First, Ben Carson's policies resonate strongly with Republican voters, particularly those who participate in the Iowa caucuses. Second, the Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group, has focused its advertising on negative aspects of Trump's platform while avoiding past controversies. Their advertising strategy has proven effective in Iowa.

The Club for Growth's Advertising Strategy

The Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group, has spent over a million dollars on ads in Iowa focused on Trump's support for centralized government healthcare, eminent domain abuse, higher taxes, and bailouts. Their strategy consists of two steps:

Conducting polls to test message effectiveness. Spending ad dollars to promote the most effective messages.

In Iowa, focusing on Trump's current support for government intervention has proven more effective than attacking his past political connections. Once a candidate loses a lead like Trump, regaining it is often impossible, as Iowa voters tend to move to their next choice.

As we approach the Republican Presidential Debate on October 2015, Ben Carson's performance could significantly impact his campaign momentum. Similarly, the continued negative advertising against Trump could solidify Carson's position as a serious contender for the Republican nomination.