What Will Become of Non-Electric Cars in a World Banning New Sales

The topic of non-electric cars disappearing from European cities has sparked a lot of discussion in recent years. These bans, however, typically only pertain to the sale of new non-electric cars, not existing ones. This leaves many wondering about the fate of these vehicles once the restrictions take effect.

Understanding the Ban on New Non-Electric Cars

Most of the bans in question serve as signals to manufacturers that the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) is inevitable. However, there is no actual legislation backing these bans. For example, the 2040 ban in Europe is somewhat humorous, given that by then, almost everyone would prefer EVs. Even a 2025 ban is more interesting, as it allows for the continued manufacture and sale of gasoline-powered cars to other countries, but not to regions like Norway or the Netherlands, which will become closed to such imports.

The Future of Fossil Fuel Burners

My prediction is that by between 2030 and 2035, traditional gasoline-powered cars will fade away. These cars simply won't be able to compete with EVs across all aspects. While it's understandable to question the current limitations of electric cars, as of now ranging from poor range and long charging times, these issues will be resolved within the next 17 years. By 2030, electric cars could easily achieve ranges of over 1000 km (600 miles) on a single charge and can be charged quickly, making them the preferred choice for most consumers.

Existing Non-Electric Cars and Regulation

It's important to note that existing non-electric cars won't be banned outright. They will remain usable as long as they meet emissions regulations and can pass roadworthiness tests. As these cars age, however, they will eventually break down and be disposed of. The key point is that new sales of these models will cease, which gives automakers time to adjust their lineup and incorporate more electric cars.

Practical Considerations and Economic Impact

While the shift to electric vehicles is necessary for environmental sustainability, it's also crucial to consider the economic aspect of the transition. Forcing all residents to purchase new cars would destroy the economy, especially for those who can only afford used cars or need them on an as-needed basis. A gradual phase-out of gasoline-powered cars would be more effective, allowing the market to naturally transition with minimal disruption. By setting a future deadline, manufacturers have a timeline to adjust their production and marketing strategies accordingly.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the ban on the sale of new non-electric cars is not a blanket ban but a strategic shift towards sustainable transportation. The future is bright for electric vehicles, with significant improvements expected in the coming years. As we move towards a more environmentally friendly transport system, it's essential to manage the transition in a way that respects economic realities and public needs.