Understanding the Probability of H1B Approval After the 2018 Lottery

Once you're selected in the H1B lottery, what are the chances of getting your application approved? The probability is quite high if you meet the qualifications, but it can vary based on several factors, including the type of sponsoring company and the current political climate.

High Probability of Approval

The chance of your application being approved after being selected in the H1B lottery is quite high, especially under the current administration. However, this does not mean the probability can be measured as 80% or 90%. Under the previous regime, there was a higher percentage of rejections due to stricter oversight. Nonetheless, if your application meets all the requirements and is sponsored by an approved company, your chances of approval are excellent.

Note that if the application is sponsored by a consultancy company, the chances are lower compared to a direct employer. Interestingly, even applications sponsored by Indian software companies have higher chances of approval under the current regime, compared to the previous administration.

The Process After the Lottery Selection

Getting selected in the H1B lottery is just the beginning of the approval process. Once you are selected, your employer can lodge a visa application with the USCIS (United States Citizenship and Immigration Services) to authorize the issuance of the H1B visa. If approved, you will be required to attend a US consulate interview to determine if you meet the necessary credentials. Assuming everything is in order, you will be issued with a H1B visa and able to travel to the USA to begin your new job.

The approval process typically takes place in April for the fiscal year 2023. By now, your employer should have received the approval, which is indicated by the receipt of the I-797 approval notice. You would then take this document to the US consulate for the interview. My concern is that this process seems to be delayed.

Factors Affecting the Lottery Selection and Approval

Getting picked in the H1B lottery means that your employer has a higher chance of securing the approval. However, several factors influence the final approval. These include the complete submission of client documents such as MSA, SOW, PO, and Client letters, along with employee documents. The probability of an application being selected is estimated to be around 20-25%. This is calculated based on the total number of applications and the number of slots selected.

For example, if there are 300,000 applications and 85,000 slots, the probability of an application being selected would be:

Total applications: 300,000 Total slots available: 85,000 Approx. chance of selection: 20-25%

This calculation provides a rough estimate of the selection probability, but the actual chances may vary based on the specific details of the application and the sponsoring company.

Conclusion

The H1B lottery and the approval process are highly complex and influenced by various factors. While the probability of approval after being selected in the lottery is high, it is still contingent on meeting certain requirements and having a supportive sponsoring company. It is important for applicants and employers to stay informed and prepared throughout the process.