Ukraine's Strategy: Preparing for Russia's Full-Scale War

There is a growing concern that Russia may move beyond its current 'special military operation' and declare a full-scale war on Ukraine. This potential escalation has reignited discussions and predictions about how Ukraine might fare in such a scenario. However, it is crucial to understand the strategic context and historical precedents, particularly Lanchester's law, to evaluate Russia's likely approach and the potential repercussions.

Understanding Russia's Tactical Framework

Historically, concentrating power against a segment of an enemy's forces has been a standard military tactic dating back to the early Bronze Age. Since 1915, Lanchester's law has provided a mathematical model for this strategy. This law states that the strength of an army is proportional to the square of the size of the army, given that the weapon used has more reach than a polearm and is not an area effect weapon like a B-52 in Vietnam or WWI artillery. This means the larger and more concentrated the force, the greater the impact it can have on the enemy.

The Futility of Wasting Resources

It is unfathomable that Russian President Vladimir Putin would intentionally waste invaluable resources by holding back substantial portions of the Russian army. Given the significant economic and political implications, this idea seems far-fetched. If Putin were to act on this premise, he would be considered a strategic quarterback, ensuring the maximum efficiency and effectiveness of his military forces. Therefore, Putin’s decision to keep parts of the army mobilized can be attributed to a strategic choice rather than a lack of intelligence or competence.

The Impact of Widespread Mobilization

Should Putin issue a full-scale mobilization, the nature of conflict would fundamentally change for Russia. The war would no longer be a distant reality for a select few; it would become a near-universal experience, affecting the hearts and minds of the Russian populace. The mobilization would spread from the periphery to the core of the Russian Federation, potentially including Moscow itself. This widespread involvement would put significant pressure on the Russian government, particularly on Putin and his inner circle.

The Consequences of Full Mobilization

If a full-scale war declaration were to occur, Ukraine would be poised to strike back with a range of asymmetric warfare tactics. These could include, but are not limited to, attacks, sabotage, and cyberattacks on Russian infrastructure. The list of potential targets would be extensive, including rail infrastructure, fuel depots, supply ports, road bridges, and power networks. These strikes would occur across the vast expanse of Russia, from the Arctic to the Pacific.

The Legitimacy of Asymmetric Warfare

While Russian civilians and their infrastructure would still be off-limits from direct attack, the principle of 'belligerent infrastructure' would still make a significant portion of Russia vulnerable. This shift in strategy would likely see a dramatic escalation in the intensity and scale of the conflict, with Russia facing immense challenges in securing its vast territory against unconventional and asymmetric warfare. Ukraine’s strategy in this scenario would not only be a defensive one but also an offensive one aimed at disrupting Russia's ability to sustain the conflict.

In summary, the potential for Russia to declare war on Ukraine sets the stage for a strategic reassessment on both sides. While Putin may not be an ‘idiot’ as some claim, the reality of widespread mobilization could lead to a shift in the dynamics of the conflict. Ukraine would need to prepare for and potentially exploit this vulnerability in Russia's infrastructure to ensure its own survival and ultimate victory.