The Unlikely Scenario: What Happens If Trump Wins 90 Percent of the Popular Vote but Hillary Wins 90 Percent of the Electoral College

Would it even be possible for a candidate to win 90 percent of the popular vote and still lose the election to his opponent? The answer, based on historical precedent and the current electoral system, is straightforward: it is extremely unlikely, but theoretically possible. This article delves into the intricacies of the U.S. electoral process and examines the implications of such a scenario.

Understanding the Electoral College

The U.S. presidency was designed with the Electoral College as a crucial component of the electoral process. This system means that each state has a certain number of electoral votes based on its representation in Congress. Winners of state-level popular votes receive all of that statersquo;s electoral votes, except in Maine and Nebraska, which use a proportional allocation system. The candidate who secures 270 electoral votes wins the presidency.

Histories of Faithless Electors

From 1796 to 2020, there have been only 167 faithless electors. These electors voted contrary to their pledge, but in the vast majority of cases, their votes did not significantly impact the outcome. Faithless electors have more often abstained or declined to vote on a candidate, rather than voting for a different candidate against their pledge. The possibility of faithless electors providing an alternate outcome is practically non-existent.

What Happens If the Popular Vote and Electoral Votes Differ?

According to the U.S. Constitution, the electoral process effectively seals the deal for the presidency. If a candidate wins the majority of electoral votes, the election is over. However, the scenario yoursquo;re proposing is quite surreal. Historically, populists or candidates with a very skewed popular vote tend to have a high number of electoral votes due to the winner-take-all system in most states.

ldquo;Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 while Trump won the electoral vote and became presidentrdquo;

While the 2016 U.S. presidential election provided a striking example of how the electoral process can diverge from the popular vote, it was not unprecedented. In that election, Hillary Clinton secured a 2.1% victory in the popular vote while Donald Trump won the necessary 306 electoral votes. This scenario did not occur because of the electoral college diluting democracy but rather because of the winner-take-all nature of the system and the geographical distribution of support.

Note: The argument that urban states like California's voting power is diluted by the electoral college is a misinterpretation. It is designed to distribute influence while also recognizing the population in each state.

Legitimate Concerns and Possible Reforms

Although such a scenario is highly unlikely in practice, it does raise valid concerns about the perceived democratic nature of the electoral process. Some argue that the electoral college is undemocratic, and proposals for reform have been made, particularly in the wake of the 2016 election.

Reforming the Electoral College

Legally, the states can choose to simply trust their electors to vote according to the popular will, as happened in 2004 when Bush won the popular vote in 42 states and the electoral college in all but two. However, no state has yet chosen to adopt arsquo;faithless electorrsquo; law where electors are legally bound to the popular vote result. Such a move would require significant political buy-in and likely face constitutional challenges, but it is a potential avenue for reform.

Conclusion

Theoretically, it is not impossible for someone to win the popular vote and still lose the election due to the electoral college. Yet, the chances of this happening are significantly greater with a skewed popular vote in a single state or a few states, not with an overwhelming majority of popular support. The debate over the electoral college and whether it should be reformed remains alive and well, but for the moment, the United States will continue to rely on this system to determine its presidential elections.

Keywords: Electoral College, popular vote, U.S. election 2016