The True State of Unemployment in the United States: Beyond Official Numbers

The unemployment rate in the United States is a topic that often garners significant attention, yet the picture painted by official figures may not accurately represent the true state of employment in the country. When defined as the struggle to find viable full-time job opportunities, the implications are staggering. For instance, some estimates suggest that in sectors and regions, the unemployment rate could range between 50-65 percent.

Drawn by this dire situation, numerous individuals have sought refuge in city encampments, a phenomenon reminiscent of the 'Dirty Thirties'. This highlights a pressing issue that neither the United States nor Canada currently measures accurately – the reality of unemployment. The political consequences of such a transparent measure would be undeniably grave.

Causes of High Unemployment

The roots of this issue extend back to the late 1970s, when the introduction of 8/16-bit microprocessors kicked off a revolution in automation. Production-based employment, which constituted 66% of the full-time workforce according to the U.S. FRB in 1965, began to undergo profound changes. By the 1980s, the shift towards automated manufacturing had reshaped the labor market.

Take, for example, the industry I was part of, the paper production sector. A system worth $2 million could increase production fivefold and eliminate twenty previous direct production roles. For every unit of automation, four jobs were lost. Scaling this to fifty industries, the impact would be even more severe. This automation has profoundly altered the landscape of employment in the United States.

Reclassification of Unemployment

The categories that determine unemployment are far broader than just the active job hunt. People in various roles such as stay-at-home parents, individuals on full disability, those with investment income, and those in retirement receive government benefits and, thus, do not contribute to the official unemployment figures. However, this does not mean they are not a part of the labor market or that their circumstances are not relevant.

Add to this the 2 million plus undocumented immigrants in the U.S., many of whom could be working. Their absence from the workforce, if they are not contributing, places a strain on societal resources and the tax burden. It is an issue that extends beyond just employment rates and touches on broader economic and social policies.

Consequences and Future Considerations

To truly understand the state of unemployment in the U.S., a more comprehensive approach is needed. It must include all individuals who are capable of working but choose not to, whether due to personal or systemic reasons. A more inclusive measurement would require a shift in how we collect and report data.

Looking forward, the continued advancement of technology will only exacerbate these issues if not addressed. The job market is evolving rapidly, and the traditional measures of unemployment may not capture the nuances of this transformation. Embracing a more holistic view of employment will be crucial for policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike.

Conclusion

The true state of unemployment in the U.S. is far more complex than the headline figures suggest. It requires a reevaluation of how we define and measure unemployment to provide a clearer picture of the current and future labor market. As we navigate this evolving landscape, it is essential to consider the broader social and economic implications of our approach.