The Rise of Electric Vehicles and the Impact on Charging Stations

As of late August 2024, the rapid rise of electric vehicles (EVs) presents a pivotal moment in the automotive industry. However, the current state of charging infrastructure poses a significant challenge. If the charging companies don’t make substantial improvements, electric vehicles may be remembered as one of technology’s greatest might-have-beens.

Plateau in Adoption

The rise in EVs has not been as dramatic as many had anticipated, mainly due to an abundance of utility electric vehicles (EVs) and the manufacturers' reluctance to enter a price-cutting war by refusing to produce economy and utility EVs. This has ultimately not hurt anyone but the consumers.

Chicken and Egg Problem

The chicken and egg problem in the EV market is significant: the demand for charging stations is driven by the rise of EVs, but the rise of EVs is driven by the availability of charging stations. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plans for 500,000 charging stations by the end of 2026, but this timeframe is likely to be revised as the current number of gas stations in the U.S. is approximately 150,000. Hence, charging stations are not expected to limit EV demand in the near future.

Consolidation of Charging Stations

A key challenge facing the EV market is the consolidation of charging stations. Large EV manufacturers are coming together with Tesla to distribute charging stations more effectively. This is because the current demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is not sufficient to justify a significant increase in charging stations. The market trend is shifting towards hybrid EVs, which are more independent of charging infrastructure, cost less to purchase, and have the same carbon footprint as a BEV. For instance, my nephew’s Ford Ranger truck hybrid achieves about 50 miles per gallon (mpg) in real-world driving conditions.

Battery Efficiency

The breakthrough in the EV industry is not the battery but the efficiency of electric drive motors. The source of the electricity used to charge an EV—whether from a battery, an internal combustion engine (ICE) hybrid, or a hydrogen fuel cell—does not matter, as it all contributes to a lower carbon footprint. After factoring in the lifecycle of a battery from mining materials to ten years of operation, a battery-electric vehicle produces 25% less CO2 compared to a gasoline-driven vehicle. This translates to 25% lower driving costs, taking into account Federal and State grants and tax credits.

Electricity Sources and Carbon Footprint

The electricity grid in the U.S. to charge an EV is composed of 16.2% coal, 43.1% natural gas, 14.1% renewable energy, 18.6% nuclear, and 5.7% hydroelectric. Therefore, the carbon footprint of EVs is directly related to the source of energy. For the cheapest green hydrogen, the Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association has reported that hydrogen vehicles have a carbon footprint of 2.7g CO2 per kilometre, compared to 20.9g for electric vehicles.

Hydrogen Fuel-Cells and Emissions

In terms of emissions, a natural gas hybrid-electric vehicle produces 20% less CO2 than a battery-EV or gasoline ICE-EV. Additionally, hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) offer notable advantages, with the Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association stating a carbon footprint of 2.7g of CO2 per kilometre, compared to 20.9g for EVs. The cost of hydrogen fuel is 2.00 CAD per liter (7.52 USD per gallon), but with new commercial processes using fire-flooding of oil sands, the cost can be lowered to 0.10 to 0.50 CAD per liter (0.37 to 1.88 USD per gallon).

Los Angeles and Oakland Port Authorities

The Los Angeles and Oakland Port Authorities are currently pioneering the use of hydrogen fuel-cell electric semi-trucks in California. With 127 hydrogen stations in operation, their goal is to transport cargo to major destinations. Hydrogen stations in Orange County, California, were in place in 1996, but Federal regulations halted their projects. However, this process is gaining traction, particularly in Canadian oil fields.

Extraction of Hydrogen from Oil Sands

Researchers at the University of Calgary have developed a method to extract hydrogen from oil sands. By injecting oxygen into oil fields, they increase the temperature, which liberates hydrogen. This hydrogen can then be separated using specialist filters. Grant Strem, CEO of PROTON ENERGY SYSTEMS INC, confirms that the economics of this process are favorable. This technology was developed by Ian Gates and Jacky Wang under an agreement between the University of Calgary and PROTON ENERGY SYSTEMS INC.

The future of green hydrogen lies in abandoned oil fields, which still contain substantial amounts of oil. By injecting oxygen, the reaction to form hydrogen can take place. Professor Brian Horsfield from the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam highlights the potential of this method to produce cheap green hydrogen.

As the automotive industry continues to evolve, the strategic development of both EV and hydrogen fuel-cell technologies will play a critical role in the transition to a more sustainable transportation future.