The Prospects of Saudi Arabia and Israel Normalizing Relations

The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been a topic of much speculation in recent years. While some might argue that they are already aligned in their goals against Iran, formal relations remain elusive. This article delves into the various factors influencing this delicate situation and the likelihood of normalization in the near future.

Current Status: Cooperation and Unofficial Alignment

Despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, there has been significant behind-the-scenes cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Both countries share a deep interest in countering Iran's malevolent regional activities, including the deployment of technology and the opening of air space to each other.

Israel's technology has found its way into Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia has invested billions in the Israeli tech sector. This unofficial alignment has helped in bolstering their mutual interests, but it is clear that formal normalization is not imminent.

Barriers to Formal Normalization

The main obstacle to normalization lies in the complex political landscape of the Middle East. Unlike other countries, Saudi Arabia has strong ties with the Palestinian cause, rooted in both history and personal experience. King Salman, in particular, is known to identify strongly with the Palestinian people.

Normalization would require Israel to accept several conditions:

Israel, on the other hand, views these demands as insurmountable. The 1967 war is seen as a legitimate act of defense, and the Golan Heights are considered crucial for strategic reasons. Jerusalem, in particular, is a highly sensitive issue, with significant religious and historical value for both Jews and Muslims.

Regional Dynamics and Role of Iran

Iran plays a pivotal role in this scenario. Its competition with Saudi Arabia for leadership and influence in the Muslim world creates an environment where normalization with Israel would be heavily weaponized against Saudi Arabia. This makes it unlikely that Israel would consider such a move without significant political cover.

The potential to draw Iran into a regional cooperation scheme could be a game-changer. A triple alliance involving Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iran could lead to stronger regional stability and cooperation, facilitated by shared interests in countering external threats and economic development.

The Current Party's Stance

Despite the American push for normalization, the current political climate is not conducive to a quick resolution. The Israeli government, under Netanyahu, has made peace with several Arab states, but these agreements remain cold and politically tenuous. The Palestinian cause remains a deeply emotional issue, and the Israeli public opinion is increasingly skeptical of a two-state solution.

King Salman's personal stance against normalization is a significant factor. He has close ties to the Palestinian cause and is unlikely to approve such a move unless Israel meets the conditions set forth in the Arab Peace Initiative.

Young Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) might have different views, but his power is still limited by his father's wishes. Until King Salman's position changes, normalization is unlikely to happen.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the prospects of Saudi Arabia and Israel normalizing relations are low in the near future. The complex political landscape, the strong stance of King Salman, and the emotional and historical significance of the Palestinian issue all contribute to this status quo. Any significant changes would require a comprehensive deal, which does not appear likely at this juncture.