The Likelihood of a Hard Brexit and Its Implications

With the ongoing debates surrounding Brexit, many are questioning the likelihood of a hard Brexit that might obtain a majority similar to the June 2016 referendum result. However, the political landscape has changed significantly since the referendum, and concluding with certainty that a hard Brexit would win over a significant majority is premature. This article explores the factors influencing this scenario and clarifies the terms 'hard' and 'soft' Brexit.

Current Perspectives on Brexit

As of now, no one can predict with certainty that a future hard Brexit form would garner the same level of support as the Leave campaign did in 2016. The European Union (EU) and its leaders could be much more accommodating than feared, rendering a hard Brexit less likely. The distinct possibility remains, but it depends on various variables not yet fully realized.

Understanding the Terms 'Hard' and 'Soft' Brexit

It is a common misconception that soft Brexit simply means staying in the Customs Union and the Single Market. In reality, soft Brexit represents staying within the EU framework, involving continued compliance with EU regulations, paying contributions to the EU budget, and maintaining a say in EU decision-making processes, albeit without voting rights. Conversely, a hard Brexit involves leaving both the Customs Union and the Single Market, allowing for more independent trade policies.

The 2016 Referendum Context

At the time of the referendum, the terms 'hard Brexit' and 'soft Brexit' were largely unknown. The British public had limited understanding of the EU or their position within it. The tabloid press, driven by a desire to increase sales with sensationalist stories, had presented the EU as a bureaucratic and authoritarian bogeyman, a narrative that had persisted for decades. The benefits of EU membership were seldom emphasized.

This misinformation and lack of comprehensive knowledge likely contributed to the narrow victory for Leave. If the true implications of both options had been widely understood, the outcome might have been different.

Refugee Crisis and UK Vote

The onset of the refugee crisis in Libya and Syria, along with the potential for millions of refugees to flood the UK, significantly influenced the vote. Additionally, events such as the attacks in Paris and Brussels along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's response added to the sense of national threat. These factors made the Leave campaign more compelling to some voters, particularly those who supported UKIP leader Nigel Farage's calls for a "hard Brexit."

The Current Political Climate

The context of the current political climate is markedly different from that of 2016. Theresa May's tenure as Prime Minister has been marked by numerous challenges, making her one of the worst PMs in recent history. The success or failure of her Brexit plan has been a central issue, leading to a sense of national catastrophe. Her approach to Brexit negotiations has been widely criticized, and her successor is likely to face the daunting task of navigating the complex post-Brexit landscape.

Conclusion

The likelihood of a hard Brexit garnering a narrow majority similar to the 2016 referendum is uncertain. The complexities of Brexit negotiations, the changing political climate, and the evolving perspective of both the EU and the UK's public opinion all play significant roles. Future outcomes depend on a variety of factors, including the EU's stance, the effectiveness of communication strategies, and the evolving public sentiment.