The Interplay of Possibility, Probability, and Plausibility: A Legal and Scientific Perspective

When we consider the concepts of possibility, probability, and plausibility, we're navigating the complex and often speculative territory of human thought and understanding. Across different contexts, these terms are used to describe the range of potential outcomes, though with distinct nuances in their application.

The Spectrum of Possibility

There are things that are possible, plausible, and probable. While a human flying unassisted and unaided is highly improbable, it remains possible. Similarly, winning the lottery on your first try is also possible, yet exceedingly improbable. On the other hand, the rare occurrence of two black holes colliding at a specific moment is plausible but very improbable. Therefore, just because something is possible doesn't necessarily mean it is probable.

The Limitations of the Word "Possible"

The word "possible" is often criticized as being one of the least useful in the English language. In a thought exercise, virtually anything you can imagine is possible, even if it violates the laws of physics. Fast-foward to a world where faster-than-light travel is possible, the laws of physics as we know them will have undergone significant revisions. From a legal standpoint, what is possible can influence actions and decisions. The literal use of "possible" amounts to saying "yes, it could happen under any scenario," and thus effectively loses its utility in distinguishing between what is likely to happen and what is merely imaginative.

Scientific Interpretation

Scientifically, things are not simply possible; they are subject to probabilities and the laws of nature. For instance, when you roll a die, any of its six faces is possible. However, only one outcome will occur each time. This raises the question of whether the assigned probability reflects our current understanding or is a fundamental aspect of reality. In modern physics, the world is described using probabilistic terms, recognizing that many outcomes are possible but that only a specific outcome can be realized.

Legal Implications

Legally, the concepts of possibility and probability can be significant. In many jurisdictions, actions based on a reasonable assessment of a situation's plausibility can influence the initiation of legal proceedings. For example, if evidence suggests that something bad could happen (regardless of how improbable it seems), it may be sufficient grounds to start a legal trial. The legal system often operates under the principle that a reasonable suspicion can warrant further investigation.

The Value of Plausibility in Decision-Making

In both legal and practical contexts, plausibility can be a crucial factor in decision-making. It helps to filter out the myriad of conceivable scenarios and focus on those that are not only possible but also consistent with known facts or probabilities. This is relevant in complex situations where multiple potential outcomes can arise, such as medical emergencies or security threats.

By understanding and distinguishing between possibility, probability, and plausibility, individuals and institutions can make more informed and realistic assessments of potential outcomes. This understanding is particularly valuable in legal contexts, where the balance between free will (effort and intention) and the likelihood of an event occurring can have significant implications.

Despite the simplicity and utility of the English language, the words "possible," "probability," and "plausibility" carry profound implications that shape our understanding of the world. Whether in the realms of science, law, or everyday life, these concepts help navigate the complex landscape of potential outcomes.

Ultimately, while we cannot predict the future with certainty, understanding the distinctions between these terms helps us make more rational and informed decisions in the face of uncertainty.