The Feasibility of a Special US-UK Trade Deal Amidst Brexit: Challenges and Considerations

Brexit has left many wondering about potential trade deals that the UK could pursue outside of the EU single market. One such scenario involves a special trade agreement between the UK and the USA, involving the free movement of capital, goods, services, and people, while also allowing Americans to visit and trade with the UK. However, several challenges and considerations make such an agreement highly unlikely. This article explores these potential hurdles and the subsequent effects on the UK's economy.

Challenges of a Special US-UK Trade Deal

US Intransigence on Trade Deals
It is important to note that the United States is unlikely to enter into such a deal with the UK. Historically, the US has been reluctant to engage in bilateral trade deals due to its larger focus on multilateral agreements. Negotiating a trade agreement that involves the free movement of goods, services, and people is a complex and time-consuming process, and the US government would need to prioritize this over other global trade negotiations.

Population and Consumer Behaviors

Smaller Population and Lower Disposable Income
Even if the US were willing to negotiate such a deal, the American population is approximately three-quarters the size of the post-Brexit EU. With a smaller population, there would be fewer potential consumers for UK exports. Moreover, the typical American consumer has less disposable income compared to their counterparts in countries like Germany and France. This means that even if American consumers were more open to UK products, they are likely to buy less than their European counterparts.

Geographical Challenges

Geographic Barriers
Geography plays a crucial role in trade. A company based in Manchester can easily load goods onto a truck or a courier van and have them on supermarket shelves in Paris or Amsterdam within a day. However, such a logistical simplicity does not hold for cities in the US, such as New York or Los Angeles. The distance and the physical barriers, coupled with the need for additional regulatory and logistical considerations, make it difficult for UK businesses to replicate the same level of efficiency in the US market.

Regulatory and Public Service Concerns

Lower Regulatory Standards and NHS Privatization
For the US to agree to such a deal, it would likely involve lowering regulatory standards on food safety and even privatizing public services like the National Health Service (NHS). These changes would be highly contentious and would face significant opposition from both the UK public and its government. Moreover, the UK has already faced criticism for its debates over NHS privatization, and relaxing food safety standards would be politically and socially unacceptable.

Implementing Agreements and Diplomatic Skills

Implementing Trade Agreements Even if a deal were to be agreed upon, the UK's ability to implement such agreements is questionable. Historically, the UK has struggled with putting the right details and regulations in place to make trade deals effective. Leaders would need to have a deep understanding of the intricacies of trade agreements and be effective in negotiating and implementing them. Without this skill set, the UK would likely find it difficult to deliver on the promises made in the agreement.

Conclusion

In conclusion, although a special trade deal with the USA could be beneficial for the UK, the practical and political challenges are substantial. From the unwillingness of the US to negotiate such a deal to the geographical and regulatory barriers, there are numerous obstacles. Moreover, the consequences of such a deal could be far-reaching, including the potential for lowered food standards and the privatization of public services. It is crucial for the UK to consider these factors carefully as it searches for alternative trade partnerships post-Brexit.