The Evolution of Blue States into Swing States: A Comprehensive Analysis

As the political landscape continues to evolve, several once solid blue states have shown signs of becoming swing states. This article delves into the status of three prominent blue states that have recently shifted or are poised to shift towards the Republican camp under Donald Trump. We will explore the historical and current voting patterns in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to determine the prospects of these states turning red.

Michigan: A Narrow Margin Turnaround

Michigan's recent political landscape offers a fascinating glimpse into the changing dynamics of blue states. In 2016, Donald Trump managed to win Michigan by a margin of less than 12,000 votes, a figure dwarfed by the combined votes of the three third-party candidates. This small margin of victory admittedly has put Michigan on the verge of becoming a swing state.

It's worth noting that Bernie Sanders, the Democratic candidate for the primary election, won this state during the primaries, gathering support that did not translate into a final victory for Clinton in the general election. Furthermore, estimates suggest that 10 percent or more of Bernie’s primary voters either did not vote for Clinton or abstained from voting at all. As of the present, Trump's popularity has continued to wane in Michigan. Notably, Democrats managed to hold onto the senate seat and flip the governor's office, indicating a strong Democratic presence in this state.

While Michigan has some potential to shift red in the future, particularly given the decline in Detroit’s population and the fact that Grand Rapids is more of a split state, the Republican Party (R) does not appear to be making significant gains. Therefore, Michigan's voting trends suggest a weak red swing but definitely not a strong one.

Wisconsin: A Narrow Marginal Victory

Wisconsin represented a similar scenario in 2016, with Trump winning by a margin of under 30,000 votes, a number slightly smaller than what the third-party candidate, Stein, garnered. Despite Democrats retaining control of the Senate and the governor's office, the state legislature remained evenly split with a 5-3 Republican advantage.

Trump's popularity in Wisconsin has declined overall, much like in other Midwestern states. The Republican Party retains its stronghold in the rural counties, while Democrats dominate the cities. Milwaukee's population has barely changed since 2000, but Madison is showing signs of growth. Given that Bernie Sanders won Wisconsin during the primaries, supporting Clinton was likely tepid at best. Although a Midwestern Republican, such as John Kasich, might have a chance at putting Wisconsin into play, a repeat performance for Trump seems unlikely.

Pennsylvania: A State in Flux

Pennsylvania is another state that saw a narrow margin for Donald Trump in 2016, with a margin larger than the previous two states but smaller in absolute numbers. The Republican candidate won by approximately 45,000 votes, which is still fewer than the combined votes of the two major third-party candidates (Bernie Sanders and Jill Stein).

While Hillary Clinton won the primary in Pennsylvania, the state maintained Democratic control over the Senate and governor's offices, with strong margins. The state also saw three House flips, resulting in one Democratic gain. However, Pennsylvania's voting demographic presents a challenge for the Democrats. It is often described as having 'Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and a lot of Alabama in between.' The blue support drops off quickly once you leave the urban centers, and many suburban areas only lean blue marginally.

For instance, my home at the time of Clinton’s victory had a margin of around 2,000 votes out of 350,000, indicating a very narrow swing. While Philadelphia is still growing, Pittsburgh is experiencing a slight decline. These trends suggest that the Democratic Party will need to maintain its support in the largest city, as well as perform well in the suburbs if it hopes to hold on to its majority.

Regarding Pennsylvania's future, it has a history of winning by large margins, with 600,000 and 300,000 vote leads in 2008 and 2016, respectively. This disparity might indicate that Trump may have overperformed in previous elections, making it more challenging to predict a full-red swing.

Conclusion

While Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have shown signs of becoming swing states, the transitions are not as straightforward as one might expect. Michigan and Wisconsin have stronger potential to swing red due to population shifts and declining Democratic support in urban areas. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is marginally red-leaning, primarily because of its demographic and historical voting patterns. These findings offer valuable insights into the evolving political landscape of these once solid blue states.