Exploring the Prospects of Saudi Arabia and Israel Making Peace

The dynamics between Saudi Arabia and Israel are complex and multifaceted. While the two countries have been engaging in informal cooperation, it remains uncertain whether a formal peace agreement will be reached within the next year. Recent developments suggest that there might be a way forward, but political and regional factors complicate the situation significantly.

The Current State of Relations

Despite the lack of official public relations and declarations, Saudi Arabia and Israel have been cooperating on security matters, particularly in relation to Iran's malevolent activities in the region. For instance, they have opened their air spaces to each other and Israeli technology is being integrated into Saudi Arabia. This informal cooperation has shown that there are mutual interests that can be pursued, but the path to formal peace remains challenging.

However, it's important to note that a formal peace agreement is unlikely to come easily. The ongoing rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia for leadership and influence in the Muslim world poses a significant obstacle. A peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel could be weaponized by Iran and other parties to further their own agendas. This means that the international community, especially the United States, will play a crucial role in brokering any such agreement.

The Palestinian Factor

The Palestinian situation is another significant roadblock. One of the conditions for Israel to enter into a formal agreement with Saudi Arabia would be to address the Palestinian issue in a way that is acceptable to both parties. However, the regime in Palestine requires that all Muslim nations refuse normalization with Israel to demonstrate their support for the Palestinian cause. Given that Saudi Arabia has not provided significant financial or political support to the Palestinians in recent years, this could be a high price for Israel to pay for political cover.

Possible Solutions and Opportunities

Despite the challenges, there are a few avenues that could potentially lead to better relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. One such approach is to draw Iran into a trio arrangement, focusing on mutual security interests against a common adversary. By cooperating closely, the three countries might be able to leverage their combined resources—oil, gas, and other valuable natural resources—to strengthen their regional position. This strategic alliance could also potentially involve Israel targeting Russia in missile strikes, further enhancing regional security.

Furthermore, it's worth recalling the Arab Peace Initiative (Land for Peace plan) that was proposed by Saudi Arabia after 9/11. This plan called for Israel to withdraw from the West Bank and Gaza and hand them over to the Palestinians as their future state. While this plan has not been implemented yet, it remains a point of reference that could still play a significant role in any future peace negotiations. The key to progress would be for Israel to recommit to this plan, as Saudi's minister of foreign affairs has reiterated that position.

The Path Ahead

For Saudi Arabia and Israel to achieve a formal peace agreement, several conditions need to be met. Firstly, there should be no actual war between the two states that would require a formal peace treaty. Secondly, it should be clear that Israel has not interfered in Saudi domestic or foreign policies that were not of direct concern to Israel. Lastly, both countries must be willing to address the Palestinian issue in a constructive manner that is acceptable to all parties involved.

The path forward is not without challenges, but with the right political will and strategic alignment, a formal peace agreement is not impossible. It is hoped that soon, Saudi Arabia will be able to join the Abraham Accords, further solidifying regional stability and cooperation.

In conclusion, while the road to peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel is fraught with obstacles, there are reasons to believe that with the right approaches and a concerted effort, a diplomatic breakthrough could be achieved in the near future. It is important for both nations to recognize the mutual benefits that come with formal peace and to work towards this goal in the interest of regional stability and prosperity.