Predictions on EU Membership and Exit: Insights into Future Membership Trends

The European Union (EU) is a complex political and economic entity, and the landscape of potential future members and exits is subject to various factors such as political, economic, and social dynamics. As of August 2023, predicting which countries will join or leave the EU over the next two decades is highly speculative. However, based on current trends and ongoing developments, we can provide some context.

Current Potential Members

The EU has recognized several Western Balkan countries as candidates for membership, including Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. Their accession is contingent on meeting the EU's criteria for membership. These criteria include political reforms, economic stability, and adherence to EU laws and standards. The path to membership for these countries is complex and can take many years to complete.

Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia have also been granted candidate status following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. These countries face significant geopolitical and economic challenges, and their progress towards EU membership is dependent on ongoing reforms as well as regional stability.

Other Potential Candidates

Other countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are also considered potential candidates for EU membership. However, their prospects are more uncertain due to political and ethnic tensions within their territories. Bosnia and Herzegovina has made progress in meeting EU criteria, while Kosovo is in a more challenging position due to internal conflicts.

Current Member Exit Possibilities

As of now, no current EU member states have formally indicated a desire to leave the EU, similar to what happened with the UK during Brexit. However, political movements advocating for a reduced EU influence or even exit have emerged in some member states. These movements have not gained significant traction, but the political climate in the EU is changing, with rising Euroscepticism in certain countries which could lead to referendums or political shifts that might challenge EU membership.

Future Joining Trends

The future of the EU membership landscape may see the inclusion of Western Balkan countries and potentially Eastern European nations. However, the likelihood of current member countries leaving is considered low based on the current political landscape. There are some uncertainties, as public opinion, economic conditions, and geopolitical events could significantly alter this outlook.

Specific Joiner Scenarios

Might join: Serbia, if it can reach a political agreement regarding Kosovo and with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Macedonia and Montenegro also have a chance of joining the EU if they continue to meet the entry criteria. No clear path: Turkey, Albania, and Moldova face significant challenges and doubts regarding their future EU membership status. Highest doubt: Belarus and Ukraine, due to their ongoing conflicts and political instability. Almost certain: Scotland, as it continues to explore options for membership. Not likely: England, as it remains a member of the EU through the UK.

Conclusion

While the EU might see new members from the Western Balkans and potentially from Eastern European nations, leaving the EU remains unlikely for current members based on the current political landscape. However, shifts in public opinion, economic conditions, or geopolitical events could significantly change this outlook. The future of EU membership is complex and dynamic, requiring close monitoring of various factors affecting each country's aspirations and ambitions.