Innovation: An Endless Quest or an Imminent Fall?

Will innovation eventually become impossible? This question invites a closer look into the nature of discovery and human ingenuity. The answer, it seems, is resoundingly no. Two fundamental reasons underscore this reality: the vast landscape of unknowns and humanity's inherent drive to innovate, even in the face of attempts to stifle progress.

The Infinite Frontier of Unknowns

One of the primary reasons innovation will continue is the sheer breadth of unknowns we face. It may seem counterintuitive, given our modern ability to access vast amounts of information, that the list of things we don't know or would like to achieve is still infinite. Yet, despite our success in understanding and harnessing certain aspects of the world, there remain countless mysteries and challenges that beckon our curiosity.

By looking at historical examples, we see that many of the technological advancements that seem today like obvious “needs” were not initially anticipated. For instance, the mobile phone, once seen as a luxury item, was powered by the same principles that had existed for decades. It was only through the advent of the network and the integration of new technologies that the mobile phone evolved into the “smart” phone we know and use today.

Similarly, there are countless other examples where a basic need was recognized, but the solution did not exist or was not anticipated. Take, for example, the invention of the university. While the notion of higher education could be as old as the desire for enlightenment itself, the structured institution as we understand it today is a relatively recent phenomenon. The same can be said for the development of vaccines, rockets, and even the internet – our imagination often outpaces the technology available at any given time, only to see it materialize later.

The Inevitability of Innovation

Another key reason innovation will continue is the inherent human drive to innovate. Even when faced with attempts to stifle innovation, creators and thinkers will find ways to continue their work. History is replete with such instances, where bans and prohibitions have been met with defiance and ingenuity.

Consider Medieval Japan, which famously turned away from the rest of the world and banned firearms and other new technologies. Despite these efforts, some innovative practices and technologies were adopted during the Shogunate period. Eventually, however, the modern world intruded, exemplified by Commodore Perry’s arrival with his "black ships." The story highlights that when a society tries to impose a total ban on innovation, it often fails, as innovators find alternative means to pursue their projects.

Similarly, in modern Europe, the concept of the "precautionary principle" has been cited as a means to curb hazardous innovations. However, this principle has often been used as a blanket ban on testing and experimentation. In reality, this has led innovators to either relocate or develop their projects in regulated environments where restrictions are less stringent. Innovators frequently adapt and find ways to continue their work, sometimes even leading to greater breakthroughs in the process.

The Unstoppable Nature of Discovery

Humans are not passive observers of the world; we are active and experimental beings. Our curiosity and natural inclination towards discovery means that no matter the attempts to limit or control it, innovation will continue. As the old joke goes, “innovation will advance by jerks or creeps.” In other words, innovation will either happen in small, incremental steps or in explosive bursts of activity – but it will happen.

At its core, this is a reflection of the human spirit. We are driven by a desire to improve our lives, to understand the world around us, and to push the boundaries of what is possible. This drive is not a mere pastime but a fundamental aspect of our existence, and it ensures that innovation will continue to play a central role in shaping the future.

Conclusion

As humanity faces new challenges and opportunities, the pursuit of innovation remains a defining characteristic of our species. The vast landscape of unknowns, combined with our insatiable curiosity, ensures that innovation will continue to advance, whether through jerky progress or more subtle growth. Rather than seeking to stifle or limit this process, it is more productive to embrace it and work towards creating an environment where innovation can flourish.