The Impact of a Non-Existing WWII on European Fascism

Introduction

The dissolution of the Axis powers and the end of World War II did not merely mark a definitive victory for the Allied forces but also fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape of Europe. This essay delves into a speculative examination of how the absence of World War II might have influenced the trajectory of fascism in Europe, focusing on financial flows, ideological dynamics, and national policies.

Financial Inflows and Their Legitimacy

Foreign Investments and Real Estate Market Fluctuations

One of the most fascinating aspects of this hypothetical scenario is the direction of financial flows. The influx of money into the European real estate market from overseas investors would have presented a stark contrast to the current reality. While there are no recorded examples of state-level confiscation of assets due to such inflows, the situation post-World War II was characterized by significant regulatory measures and public scrutiny. Without the restrictive economic policies and wartime upheavals that precipitated these measures, the mechanisms for scrutiny and control over foreign investments would likely have been much weaker.

The opaque ownership structures and the use of intermediaries would have been exploited more frequently. This could have led to increased competition for local property, making the housing market less accessible for long-term residents. The genuine questions about the legitimacy of this investment capital—much like the current concerns about the origins of such funds—would have persisted, with significant implications for property rights and financial stability.

Political Ideologies and Their Continuity

Liberalism and the Challenge of Returning Far-Right Movements

Liberalism, having taken root in stable European countries, would have remained a significant force, especially in nations that were not directly threatened by fascist movements. France, for instance, would have likely continued its struggle against far-right ideologies, thus maintaining the strength of liberal governance. Nevertheless, the core issue lies in the condition absent of military conflict and systemic disruption. Without the unifying force of combating an external enemy like Nazi Germany, liberal democratic principles may have faced renewed challenges from far-right parties.

The Role of Stalinism in Europe

Another key factor would have been the role of Stalinism. Despite Mussolini's inability to pose a direct threat to the Soviet Union, the ideological clash between fascism and communism would have continued. In the absence of WWII, Italy and Spain (and possibly Portugal) might have succumbed to communist rule. This shift could have led to an even more pronounced Cold War in Europe, as communism would have lost its capitalist antagonist, potentially undermining its appeal.

Alternative Scenarios Without WWII

Scenario A: Hitler's Mistakes and Military Coup

In this scenario, we envision Hitler making significant missteps that lead to a military coup. This puts the far-right regime under the control of the German military, resulting in a military regime that is less national-socialistic in nature. This shift may prompt a compromise similar to that achieved in Franco's Spain, where fascist regimes sometimes had to adopt more moderate stances. Portugal, despite being under Nazi influence, may also fall to fascism, but the regime could potentially be forced to compromise or face eventual collapse.

As a result, by 2019, some fascist states might still exist in Europe, particularly in Italy. However, given the political maneuvering and eventual collapse, the Holocaust would likely not have occurred. Instead, intense discrimination against Jews may have persisted in Germany and several other countries.

Scenario B: Hitler's Failure to Gain Power

In this hypothetical scenario, Hitler fails to become Chancellor, leading to a semi-military regime that bans the national-socialist and communist parties. This limited democracy, possibly with the restoration of the German monarchy, would reduce the fascist presence in Europe, with Italian fascism as the last holdout. This outcome would likely eliminate fascist regimes by 2019, but discrimination against Jews may still occur in a few European countries.

Colonialism and Superpowers' Involvement

Regardless of the political outcomes, decolonization would prove challenging, with the Soviet Union expanding its influence in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the United States, devoid of global commitments, would observe this with less involvement, leading to a protracted process of decolonization.

Conclusion

The speculative examination of Europe without World War II reveals a complex interplay of economic, political, and ideological factors. The absence of this global conflict would have profoundly influenced the development of fascism, likely leading to different outcomes, such as continued fascist regimes in some countries or complete elimination by 2019. The eventual resolution of these scenarios would have likely been marked by intense discrimination and prolonged decolonization processes.

Keywords: fascism, world war ii, global history