Estimating the Ideal Mass of a Ten-Year Supply Depot for a Growing Mars Outpost

When considering the logistics of setting up a ten-year supply depot for a growing Mars settlement, several factors come into play. These include the expected population growth, the duration of the supply duration, and the environmental and physiological challenges faced by the settlers. This article delves into the calculations and considerations needed to ensure the survival and growth of a Mars settlement from a projected 1,000 to 1,500 people over the next decade.

Population Growth and Challenges

The Mars settlement is projected to grow from 1,000 to 1,500 people between 2028 and 2038. However, this growth will require substantial planning and resources. Environmental challenges, such as low gravity, radiation, and the need for gravity to aid in skeletal development, add layers of complexity to the supply chain.

Low gravity can lead to muscle dystrophy and bone degeneration, which can be detrimental to the settlers' health. Additionally, the high radiation levels on Mars necessitate a robust supply of medical and life support materials. These factors underscore the importance of ensuring an adequate and sustainable supply of essential resources.

Supply Requirements

For the supply depot, the primary focus is on consumables. The total mass of consumables required for a 1,000-person colony is calculated based on daily consumption rates. Assuming a 90% recycling efficiency, it is estimated that each person requires approximately 3.25 kg of consumables per day. Over 10 years, the total mass of consumables required for 1,250 people is calculated as follows:

3.25 kg/day times; 365 days/year times; 10 years times; 1,250 people approx; 14,812,500 kg

Adding a 10% safety margin to account for variances and unexpected events, the total mass of consumables needed is approximately 16,500,000 kg or 16,500 metric tons.

Machinery and Equipment Considerations

While the primary focus is on consumables, it is crucial to consider the mass of machinery, equipment, and infrastructure needed for the settlement. This includes construction equipment, 3D printers, building materials, medical devices, and replacement clothing. Estimates indicate that the mass of these items could be 10 to 15 times the mass of the consumables.

Therefore, the total mass of equipment required is estimated to be approximately 200,000 metric tons over 10 years. Assuming that 75% of these materials must come from Earth, the mass of equipment that needs to be delivered from Earth is approximately 150,000 metric tons.

Space Transportation and Logistics

Transporting the necessary mass to Mars is a significant challenge. With current space transportation technologies, it is estimated that 1,500 starships would be required to deliver the consumables and equipment over a decade. This translates to approximately 4,000 to 5,000 starship launches from Earth during this period.

To reduce the trip time and increase the number of launches, NASA's Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) technology could be utilized. However, the development and certification of NTR stages, as well as the logistical challenges of launching multiple starships per day, present significant hurdles. Realistically, achieving a launch rate of one per day for ten years would be highly challenging and may require 20 to 30 years of technological and regulatory advancements.

Furthermore, the Earth-Mars orbital phasing constraints mean that launching more than one starship per day is not feasible with current chemical rocket technology. Despite these challenges, the exploration and settlement of Mars continue to be a compelling goal for humanity.

In summary, a ten-year supply depot for a growing Mars settlement from 1,000 to 1,500 people requires an estimated 16,500 metric tons of consumables and 150,000 metric tons of machinery and equipment from Earth. With current technologies and logistical constraints, achieving this mass delivery will require significant advancements in space transportation and infrastructure.

Keywords: Mars settlement, space supply depot, population growth