The EU's Approach Post-Brexit: A Strategy or Punishment?

The recent developments in Europe and beyond have raised questions about the EU's future and its relationship with the UK following Brexit. As the European Union continues to navigate its post-Brexit landscape, it is critical to understand the motivations behind its actions and whether these actions are driven by strategic interests or perceived punishment for the UK's decision to leave.

EU’s Growing Instability and Its Impact on Europe and the World

As the European Union undergoes a significant shift in its political and economic landscape, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Union is not the monolithic entity it once was. The EU’s growing instability, coupled with Brexit, is creating a new reality where member states are beginning to question the status quo and the cost of continued European integration. This instability, however, does not come without consequences. The citizens of European nations and the global community are witnessing the rapid decline of an institution that was once seen as a beacon of unity and stability.

National Political Egos and the Need for Diversion

While there is little suggestion that the EU will turn itself into the antithesis of Brexit, its actions may still make things difficult for the UK. This is often driven by political reasons rather than a desire to punish the UK for leaving the bloc. Various EU leaders are in a challenging position, seeking to divert attention from domestic issues. French President Macron, for instance, is unpopular domestically and is trying to shift public attention away from his governance shortcomings. Similarly, Germany’s Chancellor Merkel is stepping down due to declining popularity, which was in part a result of her decision on mass immigration in 2016.

The European Commission's Mistakes and the Search for Blame

The European Commission's handling of the COVID-19 vaccine situation adds to the complexity of the EU’s post-Brexit dynamics. There has been a significant miscalculation in vaccine orders and supply, leading to widespread public dissatisfaction. The Commission is now in a position where it needs to deflect public anger. The ease with which the UK has been targeted highlights this need, but the EU must be careful in its approach. Any actions that jeopardize the second-biggest contributor, Germany, could lead to even more dissatisfied members of the Union, particularly those that are less centralized.

Responding to the EU's Challenges

Given the current landscape, resolute action from the UK is essential. Instead of engaging in a fruitless negotiation, the UK should focus on strategies that protect its interests while also preparing for the future. One key approach is to ignore rhetoric from the EU’s un-elected officials and adhere to the rules they have written. The UK cannot be swayed by political posturing. Additionally, the UK should consider a timeline for negotiations and align them with upcoming elections in major EU countries, such as France and Germany. Confidence in elected officials is crucial for successful negotiations.

Strengthening the UK's Position

The future also demands a broader strategy that includes re-nationalizing key industries and opening new global trade opportunities. Re-nationalizing the steel industry, for example, could create a platform for employment and economic stability across the country. Moreover, negotiations with other countries must occur to ensure the UK remains a significant player in the global marketplace. This approach involves not only securing trade deals but also fostering alliances that will benefit the UK in the long term.

Conclusion

While the future of the EU and the UK is uncertain, it is crucial for the UK to maintain a clear and strategic approach. The EU's political tactics may be rooted in a combination of national political interests and a search for diversion. However, the UK should not be deterred by these challenges. By focusing on domestic policies, diplomatic relations, and long-term strategic planning, the UK can emerge from this period of transition stronger and more resilient.