Can Big Oil Resurrect Combustion Engines or Will Electric Cars Prevail?

The battle between electric cars and combustion engines is not new. As automakers continue to develop combustion engines, many have raised the question of whether oil companies could revive them. However, the current trend towards the phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles suggests a clear shift in the automotive industry's direction.

The Role of Governments and Environmental Regulations

The shift towards electric cars is not solely driven by automakers' desires, but also by strong government support and environmental regulations. Starting around 2030, many governments have implemented bans on the production of combustion engines. This move is seen as a critical inflection point in the ongoing climate change battle. It is hoped that if these bans are successful, they will mark a significant turning point in the fight against climate change.

Historical Context: The Failure of Electric Vehicles in the Past

To understand the current trend, it is important to look at the past. While electric vehicles (EVs) faced significant challenges in the early 2000s, one company, General Motors (GM), played a pivotal role in their decline. GM’s electric car, the EV1, was ultimately scrapped despite its promising prototype stage. GM worked hard to make the EV1 disappear, and other automakers who built electric vehicles for limited production runs in California also sued the government for the demand that these vehicles be produced. They succeeded in changing the regulations that made it difficult for these vehicles to be produced.

The Return of Electric Cars

In 2011, automakers like Nissan, GM, and Tesla launched their electric vehicles for the masses, not because of government demands but because they recognized the potential in the market. Nissan, in particular, had been developing battery technology for decades, partly because of Japan's heavy dependence on oil imports. This move by automakers was a tacit acknowledgment of the direction that emissions regulations were moving in, not just in the US but globally.

Volkswagen's Alternative Approach

Contrary to the efforts of automakers, Volkswagen chose a different path to addressing car pollution: they cheated. The cheating scandal, also known as the "Dieselgate" incident, revealed Volkswagen's use of software to pass emissions tests for diesel vehicles. Rather than embracing cleaner technology, they opted for deceit, which ultimately led to significant fines and a loss of consumer trust.

The Current State and Future Outlook

Today, the situation is different. While large numbers of countries are still not purchasing more than 3 electric vehicles, this does not appear to be a significant decline in sales. Global demand for electric vehicles continues to grow, and oil companies seem to understand that the market for electric vehicles will eventually overshadow fossil fuel vehicles. The interest of oil companies in reviving combustion engines is currently lacking, as evidenced by the survival of prominent figures like Elon Musk and Martin Eberhard.

Conclusion

While oil companies have played a significant role in the past in stifling the growth of electric vehicles, the current landscape is different. Governments and automakers are driving the shift towards cleaner technologies. Although some automakers have tried to cheat the system, the industry is moving towards electric vehicles, regardless of any attempts by oil companies to revert the trend.