Biden Administration and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Crossroads: The Impact and Implications

The upcoming US presidential elections could significantly alter the dynamic between the United Kingdom and the United States under a potential Biden administration. Boris Johnson, the current UK Prime Minister, might face unprecedented pressure from the Biden team, especially regarding issues that could impact the Good Friday Agreement and the Good Friday Treaty. This article explores the potential challenges and implications that Boris Johnson might encounter in his dealings with the Biden administration.

Shift in US Foreign Policy and Economic Priorities

Biden has already endorsed a return to the Obama-era policy of prioritizing foreign countries and not placing America first. This shift in policy will likely lead to a re-evaluation of many international relationships, including that between the UK and the US. The Biden administration is expected to focus on global cooperation and multilateral approaches, aiming to reduce the national debt while increasing foreign aid and support for international stability. This change in stance could challenge Johnson's strategy of aligning with the Trump administration, especially as the US prioritizes the protection of the Good Friday Agreement.

Pressure on Boris Johnson Regarding the Good Friday Agreement

One of the key areas of pressure from the Biden administration will be around Boris Johnson's policies that could jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement. Biden and Congress are deeply concerned about the possibility of a hard border on the island of Ireland, which would arise from a hard Brexit. The Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of sectarian violence, is seen as a cornerstone of this peace process, and any actions that might contradict this agreement will be met with strong resistance. The United States, as a guarantor of the agreement, will not entertain any actions that could undermine it—this includes any violations of international law.

The Biden Team's Approach and Diplomatic Strategy

The Biden administration has a clear strategy to avoid direct contact with foreign governments during the campaign period, a tactic partially inspired by the Trump team's methods. This has left the British government struggling to prepare for potential changes in US policy. British officials have not been able to meet with senior members of Joe Biden's foreign policy team, which hampers their preparations. The US position is clear: any actions that endanger peace in Ireland are unacceptable, and this will be a significant factor in any future Sino-American trade agreements.

Irish Diplomatic Influence and Power

Irish diplomats have a long history of leveraging their strong ties with the United States to their advantage. With over a fifth of the US population having Irish heritage, the Irish lobby is the second largest in the country, only surpassed by the Israeli one. This has given Ireland immense soft power, evident in the significant number of visits by US presidents to Ireland during their tenures. These visits are not just ceremonial; they are strategic, aimed at maintaining strong political and economic alliances.

Ireland's influence is further magnified by the 'Plámás' approach, a form of flattery that is prevalent in Irish culture and often used to win US support. This special relationship is not just about shared heritage but involves deep-rooted political and economic ties. Despite Boris Johnson's efforts to align with Donald Trump, the reality is that Ireland's influence in the US remains strong and will not be easily overlooked.

Concluding, the Biden administration's stance on the Good Friday Agreement and its commitment to international stability present significant challenges for Boris Johnson. Any actions that might endanger this hard-won peace will face strong opposition, not just from the US, but also from Congress and the Irish diaspora. The British Prime Minister will need to navigate these complex and ever-evolving geopolitical landscapes carefully to avoid any missteps that could have long-lasting consequences.