A Roadmap to Victory for Ukraine: Beyond Political Independence

Ukraine's Goal: Retaining Political Independence and 1992 Legal Borders

The core mission for Ukraine lies in achieving and maintaining political independence, a fundamental principle that ensures Putin/Russia has no influence over their internal and foreign policies. This is the bare minimum requirement for victory, but the ultimate goal would be a restoration to their 1992 legal borders, which would signify a complete and conclusive victory. Such a victory would be symbolized by the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian soil.

The Path to Victory

Victory for Ukraine extends beyond just political boundaries. It would include:

The withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine and the cessation of any Russian military operations targeting Ukraine. The restoration of Ukrainian borders, including the reintegration of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukraine's accession to NATO, recognizing their bravery and contributions to the defense of Europe. Russia's removal from the United Nations Security Council, reflecting the denial of Russia's seat at the diplomatic table. Russia's compensation for the damages caused, including material and human losses. An apology from Russia for the atrocities committed during the invasion. Accountability for Russian personnel involved in human rights abuses, ensuring they face justice for their crimes.

These objectives are not just distant hopes but concrete steps toward a sustainable and just peace. Such outcomes would affirm Ukraine's sovereignty and demonstrate the world's commitment to upholding international law and human rights.

The Immediate Reality: Russia's Offensive Strategy

Current military forecasts indicate that Ukraine is on the verge of losing the war. Russia has shifted from a strategy of 'aggressive attrition' or 'active defense' to a more assertive offensive approach. This is evident in their ongoing advances in various sectors of the front, pushing Ukrainian forces back.

While this trend is concerning, it is also a testament to the resilience and determination of the Ukrainian military and the support they receive from international partners. The challenge now is to stabilize the front lines and turn the tide of the conflict.

Ukraine's Victory Conditions

The success of Ukraine would be marked by Russia adhering to its international obligations, specifically the Budapest Memorandum and the 1997 Friendship Treaty. These agreements, which guaranteed the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, are pivotal in shaping the outcome of the conflict.

Ukraine's victory would be unequivocal if Russia complies with these treaties and withdraws from Ukrainian territory. The 1994 borders, which Ukraine solemnly vowed to defend in the Budapest Memorandum, should be the ultimate benchmark for victory. Anything less would signify a mere temporary halt in Russia's conquest of Ukraine, leaving open the possibility of future invasions.

The journey to victory is fraught with challenges, but the commitment to these principles will guide Ukraine toward a future where their sovereignty and territorial integrity are unchallenged.